Solar Cycle Prediction
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Solar Cycle Prediction
A review of solar cycle prediction methods and their performance is given, including forecasts for cycle 24. The review focuses on those aspects of the solar cycle prediction problem that have a bearing on dynamo theory. The scope of the review is further restricted to the issue of predicting the amplitude (and optionally the epoch) of an upcoming solar maximum no later than right after the sta...
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We study the origin of the predictive skill of some methods to forecast the strength of solar activity cycles. A simple flux transport model for the az-imuthally averaged radial magnetic field at the solar surface is used, which contains a source term describing the emergence of new flux based on observational sunspot data. We consider the magnetic flux diffusing over the equator as a pre-dicto...
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A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month~by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of t...
متن کاملThe Solar Cycle
The solar cycle is reviewed. The 11-year cycle of solar activity is characterized by the rise and fall in the numbers and surface area of sunspots. A number of other solar activity indicators also vary in association with the sunspots including; the 10.7 cm radio flux, the total solar irradiance, the magnetic field, flares and coronal mass ejections, geomagnetic activity, galactic cosmic ray fl...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Living Reviews in Solar Physics
سال: 2010
ISSN: 1614-4961
DOI: 10.12942/lrsp-2010-6